Release #047-97

Contact: Colleen Roche (212) 788-2958 or Fred Winters (DOH) 788-5290

Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani today announced the results of a City Department of Health (DOH) study that reports a dramatic 30% drop in the number of deaths from AIDS in New York City last year. On his weekly radio show on WABC radio, Mayor Giuliani and Health Commissioner Dr. Margaret A. Hamburg explained the results of the study of 1996 city death records by Dr. Mary Ann Chiasson, Dr. Hamburg and a team of Health Department scientists.

Meanwhile, in Washington D.C., DOH Assistant Commissioner Dr. Chiasson presented the study's findings at the 4th Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections and at a subsequent national press conference.

Mayor Giuliani said, "This is the first time, in New York City or anywhere else, that we've been able to document a significant improvement in the daily loss of life to AIDS. In a city with 3% of the US population but 16% of its AIDS cases, where over 90,000 people have been diagnosed with AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic and over 60,000 of them have died, these numbers are especially significant and hopeful to all of us who have had family, friends and colleagues affected by this devastating disease. Furthermore, this news is even more welcome because it is across the board. Men and women, young and old, black, white and Hispanic, have all shown similar improvement."

Dr. Hamburg explained, "None of us expected what we found as 1996 progressed. In 1994 and 1995, deaths per day had remained essentially flat throughout the year, averaging 19.4 in 1994 and 19.3 in 1995. In 1996, by contrast, the daily average of deaths from AIDS decreased from 19.5 deaths per day in January to as low as 10.1 per day in October and 11.6 per day in December. Another way to look at it is that 5,000 New Yorkers died of AIDS in NYC in 1996 as opposed to the 7,000 who died each year in 1994 and '95."

Dr. Hamburg continued, "Of course, the obvious question is 'Why?' And the truth is we don't have a good answer yet. We assume that a number of factors come into play. The median survival time following diagnosis has increased from 13 months in the '80s to 19 months in the '90s. Access to medical care and services has improved greatly, especially since the City's share of Ryan White funding more than doubled from $44 million in 1993 to $100 million in '94. There is far better medical treatment today of the opportunistic infections that kill so many people with AIDS. And there are certainly new and improved therapies for the treatment of HIV infection itself."

"However, none of these factors, in and of themselves, explain this development. Certainly, taken as a whole, they go a long way toward explaining it, but we honestly don't know if they represent the whole story. More studies will have to be done to determine precisely what we're doing right so we can improve on this profoundly welcome result."

Here are the highlights of other findings in the DOH study:

• Overall, AIDS is the third leading cause of death in NYC and the leading cause of death in people 1-14 and those 25-44 years of age.

• The month with the highest average number of deaths from AIDS per day was November 1995 when the number of deaths peaked at 20.9 and it has steadily declined from that point to a low of 10.1 per day in October 1996.

• The small increase in deaths per day in December 1996 was also seen in total deaths from all causes and may be attributed to an early, severe influenza season.

• The most dramatic decrease by age was seen in people 35-44 years of age, but here there were also very significant decreases in those 25-34 and those 45 and over. The number of deaths among people below age 25 is small and it is therefore difficult to discern meaningful changes.

• There were declines in deaths among both men and women in the Hispanic, black and white race/ethnic groupings, although the declines were most dramatic in men.

• AIDS became the leading cause of death among male Hispanic New Yorkers in 1991 and the second leading cause of death among black male New Yorkers in 1993.

• The new protease inhibitors (Norvir, Crixivan and Viramune), while undoubtedly an element in the decline, did not become available until some months into 1996, after the decline had begun.
  
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